Research firm Canalys has released a new study report on future trends of shipments of mobile devices, which forecast that Android will witness a downfall in the years to come. While Android leads the mobile device shipments at this point in time, it is projected to tumble down by 2016. Operating Systems like Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry with improved features as well as other new OSes are expected to gain traction in the market, eating away a significant chunk of Android’s market share.
According to Canalys, while Android held 68 percent in 2012 and is expected to grow up to 71 percent in 2013, the OS will drop to 66 percent in 2016. This could happen due to improved version of Windows OS and Blackberry OS as well as the introduction of new OSes.
Analysts there suggested that while BlackBerry plummeted from 20 percent in 2009 of global market share to 5 percent of the total shipments of mobile devices recorded in 2012, it has fair chances to win back some of the lost customers with its new operating system.
Moreover, Windows Phone 8 is projected to be a rising challenger to Android and iOS. As per the analysts, while WP8 could not pick momentum so far due to lack of compatibility from previous Windows OS version, WP8 as well as Windows 8 OS is believed to grow in the coming years due to factors like falling cost of PCs and devices, increasing enterprise adoption of Windows 8, and rise in consumer’s familiarity with Live Tiles UI.
Moreover, new smart phone platforms like Firefox, Tizen, Sailfish and Ubuntu set to make a mark in Mobile World Congress this year are working hard on luring specific segment of potential buyers and are expected to attract first-time smart phone buyers.
Apart from this, The report forecasts that worldwide shipment of mobile devices – notebooks, tablets, smartphones and phone – will reach 2.6 billion units by 2016, and tablets will be the fastest growing market, witnessing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35 percent. Shipments of tablet PCs are forecast to reach 384 million units in 2016.
While 2013 will be dominated by 7‑inch screen tablets, Apple’s iOS will remain to lead the tablet market over the next five years. However, its share is expected to fall to 40 percent from 57 percent in 2012.
Smartphones will follow this at a CAGR of 18 percent. The point of surprise is that the study projects smartphones to take over feature phones in the year 2013. And while feature phones will decline, notebook will see no good coming their way in near future and are expected to fall at a CAGR of -6 percent. Tablets are expected to be the key factor in this decline in the demand as it is also speculated to exceed notebooks shipments in 2014.
The overall smartphone shipments by 2016 are projected to almost double the 695 million achieved in 2012.